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11/16/2017 ZYNE Issue 8 - Position sizing to success , close to the top? ZYNE ENTRY
---Greetings :-D ---------
Welcome all new readers!
Fall is here. Great time to be investing and trading, sun is out leaves are in! market is on an upmelt with selloff on the horizon,
Lots of great stocks to be invested in: two out of 3000 on our end, the rest is bound to fall in range :0
---General <>< -- General market
The slow upmelt of rising 0.1% daily for 500 days, has only one job: suck investors in to buy at the top. This upmelt looks like an uptrend, but the trend is insignificant in capital gains.
100 days - 10% investors , 200 days - 20% investors, 300 days - 40% investors , 400 days - 80% investors ,500 days - 99% investors.
99% investors will be fully invested on the top, I don't believe its a good position to be in.
Zyne is 25-30% of capital invested.
---Risk Management O_O -- Position sizing to success
Position sizing is one of the most important factor in risk management, How you size your position determines your reward, size of your position contains your risk.
The quantity of positions determines your shots, Shot quantity determines your lottery tickets.
You want a few lottery tickets in case some positions don't work out, a full bet on one lottery ticket is also feasible, as long as the game is rigged or the bet is guarranteed.
Rigged games aren't legal, so thats off the tables.
Bank Certificate of Deposits are guarranteed , so you can bet your life savings on it, although the return is miniscule.
To limit risk , 1/5th of a position sounds like a good start. 1/10th sounds like a test, 1/5th sounds like an investigated prospect , 1/2th sounds like a sure bet.
Sure bets still needs half of the other capital available to diversify the capital in case you get bored with one ticket. 2/1 Leveraged needs to be shaq on a hoop.
---Growth _____-- Markets to invest for 2017-2030 with high growth levels in 2017
Medium Debt Levels with growth products // Lower debt is better
Market Name Debt to GDP%
United Kingdom (90% debt)
US NYSE/NASDAQ market ( 87% debt) * Growth
European Union market (87% debt) * Growth
Canada TSX market (70% debt)
China SSE/SHE market ( 66% debt) * Growth
Germany Borse market (60% debt) *Growth
South Korea KRX market (33% debt) *Growth
India NSE market (51% debt)
Russia market MCX market (13% debt) * low growth products
High Debt Levels with growth products // higher debt is a large rucksack on your back
Market Name Debt to GDP%
Japan (134% debt) *Growth
Italy (110% debt)
Conclusion: Investments for US, EU , China, Germany , South Korea are good investments for the next 10-20 years as long as the debt remains steady.
Its best not to invest in Japanese or Italian markets regardless of growth due to the extreme debt load that growth needs to overcome by the year , 134% every year. Sack of extra heavy stones on one’s back don’t promote growth.
---Growth _____-- Lianhua Supermarkets 0980.HK ENTRY@$3.20HKD
We are invested around $3.20 HKD @ 11/2017 , Its a good stock.
Position sizing: Under $20k USD capital-> 15-25% of capital
Over $20k USD -> 10%-20%
Over $100k USD -> 15%
Target: $5.0 HKD 3 months by Feburary /2018, $9.00 HKD 2 years
We could be wrong, probably 100% right.
Until next week or the week after... Zyne Letters.